Hanoi, November 4. Vietnam’s production and export recovery is supported by the artificial intelligence wave, record foreign direct investment and a safe fiscal base.
Growth drivers
S&P Global Ratings said exports to ASEAN members and India rose more than 12% in the first eight months of 2026. The current-account surplus reached 2.8% of GDP and foreign exchange reserves rose above five months of imports.
The World Bank said AI-related goods contributed more than 70% of export growth. UOB data showed registered FDI from January to September exceeded 50.36 billion USD, up 76.4% year on year, while disbursed FDI reached 21.07 billion USD, up 12.1%.
The IMF said general government debt fell from 41.3% of GDP in 2020 to 30.5% in 2025. Standard Chartered forecasts growth of 9.5% in 2026 and 11.0% in 2027, UOB forecasts 9.2% and 8.8%, and S&P Global Ratings forecasts 8% in 2026. R&I upgraded Vietnam’s rating to BBB-, giving it investment-grade status for the first time.
Macroeconomic risks
AMRO said the export- and FDI-led model now faces weaker traditional drivers and needs higher productivity. S&P Global Ratings said foreign-invested enterprises account for about 70% of total export value, leaving Vietnam vulnerable to supply-chain shifts. AMRO said ICOR averaged 6.43 in 2021-2025, compared with 4.5 for Malaysia and 6.6 for Indonesia.
The World Bank warned that AI-related goods account for more than 70% of export growth. UOB said the September consumer price index rose 5.08% year on year and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.7%, above the Government’s 4.5% target. Standard Chartered raised its forecast from 4.4% to 4.7%.
Vietnam still has solid macroeconomic drivers despite AI-bubble risk, FDI dependence and inflationary pressure. The source said removing internal bottlenecks could help the country reach its double-digit growth target.
Sources: VietnamPlus / Vietnam News Agency
