On October 8, the Vietnam Real Estate Club (VREC) and the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Club (HREC) held a discussion on the 2027 real estate market. Experts identified three main obstacles that will continue to challenge companies and homebuyers next year.
The first obstacle is the cost of capital. Le Huu Nghia, director of Le Thanh Company, forecasts that real estate loan rates will remain at 10% to 15% a year. High rates increase companies' input costs and make it difficult for them to cut selling prices.
For buyers, expensive credit makes them reluctant to use financial leverage. Market data shows that purchasing power is likely to remain weak next year because people have difficulty accessing credit and are concerned about borrowing rates. This directly affects companies' cash flow and liquidity.
The second obstacle is the gap between incomes, home prices and supply. Nghia said real estate prices have exceeded what people can afford. Workers' incomes have not kept pace with rising prices because companies are facing difficulties and limiting salary and bonus increases. At the same time, the resolution of legal problems affecting stalled projects is creating a large future supply, leading buyers to wait. They may postpone transactions until next year in hopes that prices will fall further.
In recent years, the removal of legal obstacles has allowed real estate companies to prepare a large number of products for the market. The Ministry of Finance said that by September 2026, a national system had recorded 4,685 projects with long-standing difficulties and unresolved issues. Of these, 3,407 projects, or 73% of the total, with combined investment of more than VND2.5 quadrillion, were reported to have completed classification and problem-solving work.
In Ho Chi Minh City alone, authorities have resolved difficulties affecting 650 projects. In the first seven months of this year, 37 projects in the city became eligible to raise capital, offering more than 27,300 homes. That was 1.64 times the 2025 figure. However, the 2027 market is still expected to lack affordable commercial housing and social housing that meets actual demand.
A third factor could be a rule linking apartment-building service life to the lifespan of the structure. The government has asked for the rule to be included in a draft amended Housing Law. The specific provisions have not yet been set, but the change could affect how the market values apartments, especially in buildings that have been in use for many years.
Experts say that once a building's service life is clearly defined, buyers will have a basis for factoring wear and age into the price. Apartments in older buildings, where construction quality has declined or the remaining operating period is short, could face greater downward pressure on value.
Facing these obstacles, companies will have to reshape their strategies for 2027. Le Nhu Thach, chairman of Bcons Group's board, said industry companies should prioritize cash-flow management. When financial pressure exceeds a safe level, companies need to accept selling some assets at a low price to restructure their capital flows. Money in the market is currently concentrated in public-investment projects and will need time to move into the private sector through contractors.
On consumer trends from now through next year, Thach forecasts that younger customers will favor housing projects with several integrated amenities.
Quang Huy
Sources: VnExpress
