At the close of trading on October 21, Vietnamese companies listed SJC gold bars at 139.3 million to 142.3 million dong per luong for buying and selling, respectively. The price fell by 300,000 dong on both sides during the day.
Domestic gold prices fell after global gold prices had declined for four consecutive sessions. The precious metal was trading at around $4,129 per ounce, little changed from the previous level. Excluding taxes and fees, the equivalent global price was 129.6 million dong per luong. The gap between domestic and global prices was 12.7 million dong per luong.
One factor putting pressure on gold prices was the outlook for US interest rates. A renewed rise in oil prices raised concerns that inflation could last longer, leading markets to consider whether the US Federal Reserve might keep monetary policy tight for longer than expected.
Gold does not pay interest and is usually less attractive when rates remain high. While investors wait for more signals about the Fed's monetary-policy direction, rate expectations remain an important factor affecting precious-metals prices.
Most economists surveyed expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in October, before a possible rate increase in December. CME's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a rate increase at the October 27–28 meeting at about 15%, while the probability of a December increase is as high as 90%.
Bas Kooijman, chief executive and asset manager at DHF Capital S.A., said gold prices could remain under pressure if higher oil prices sustain inflation and reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy.
Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomic research at Tastylive, said gold could rise if the market removes or reduces the likelihood of some rate increases forecast for next year.
Investors are also waiting for US personal consumption expenditure data, expected next week. The Fed prioritizes this inflation measure when assessing progress toward its 2% target. The dollar, US government bond yields and upcoming economic data will also affect the outlook for gold prices.
In its latest precious-metals outlook, CIBC commodity analysts cut their fourth-quarter gold-price forecast to $4,500 per ounce, 31% below the $6,500 forecast issued at the start of the year. The bank now forecasts an average gold price of $5,200 per ounce in 2027, down from its previous forecast of $6,500. For 2028, CIBC expects an average of $5,500, down from $6,000 previously.
For the longer term, CIBC forecasts an average gold price of $4,800 per ounce in 2029, $4,500 in 2030 and $4,200 in 2031.
CIBC made the adjustment after a volatile year for precious metals. The bank said gold had fallen by almost 24% from a record high of about $5,600 per ounce at the start of the year. The price dropped to around $4,000 at the end of June before recovering to about $4,400 during the summer.
Sources: Dân Trí
